There will be more chaos as we can’t please Maoist no matter what. They want to establish Maoism – who can tolerate that? There will be new constitution – but a lot will happen before that. The tough road is election of constituent assembly which is not possible without Maoist participation and Maoists never believe in free and fair election. They want “unconditional” constituent assembly election. That means government needs to hold election while the Maoist continue to do killing and extortion. As we know from the past, that Maoist continued killing and extortion even during cease fire. We can’t let Maoist have 75% majority in the assembly just because they have night time control of villages and they can threaten people to vote for their candidates. They will try to rig the election and win by force if the government holds the election without disarmed Maoist participation in the interim government.
If the government stands by the condition that the Maoists have to de disarmed and need to be participating in the interim government, the Maoists may not agree to that. They will take that as a highly risky route. As we all know that the Maoists have almost nil public support, the notion of them being disarmed before the election is in fact risky for them if they are planning to have majority in the constituent assembly and form a constitution to allow one party communist government. That’s’ why I fear that the Maoists will not participate in the election of constituent assembly unless it is “unconditional” in their terms. Government can’t agree to “unconditional” constituent assembly election. If they do, it won’t be fair to those thousands of martyrs who lost their lives fighting the Maoists cruelty directly or indirectly. We can’t just submit to those who gave barbaric death to innocent people. However, the Maoists may soften themselves and may very well surprise us as they may have learned the lesson during last 10 years that extortion, killing and looting cannot topple a government. Look what general public with “no arms” did in three weeks! If they have little bit of wisdom, they should learn from this.
Let us say that Maoists do participate in the constituent assembly election and the assembly body is peacefully elected. Let us keep our finger crossed! The bitter fight will then start on monarchy’s role. Maoist will want them to go away and seven parties may want ceremonial monarch to remain. The King will try to play his last card, if any left. There is tough fight ahead. But, I predict in the end Nepalese people will win. I am sure party leaders have become smarter having gone through this recent crisis. It is 101 of management lesson that leaders mature as they go through crises.
Likely possibility, Maoist will continue to fight till they are totally defeated. And they need to be defeated. There is not even a single example in the world that communists have joined multi-party system until they are defeated by democratic and capitalist forces. Prachanda and Baburam may very well want to become another Gyanendra. We won’t let that happen. Nepalese people made Gyanendra with 150,000 armed forces bow before the public; we definitely can teach the Maoists a lesson. We Nepalese people are ready for the worse and are prepared to show grace and mercy. Maoists should not underestimate people’s power.