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Prachanda : Plan A and Plan B

A few days back I was reading eKantipur. A headline something along this line “First time access for Maoist to Parliament ” caught my eyes. For a moment, I had a strange feeling in my stomach. I could not think of anything, and then slowly everything started falling into place. At least, for me.

Despite everything progressing well between seven party alliance and Prachanda, something inside me always keeps telling that “it is too good to be true”.

Prachanda might have very good intentions, and I might be totally wrong. However, there is no harm in stretching the imagination and see what might be other possibilities. If Prachanda’s plan A is to win the election. What could be Plan B for him, if Plan A is unsuccessful?

We can observe a few things from Mao’s activities before he captured China. Mao after the legendary “long march” was ruling a territory of 129, 600 km square with 2 million habitants .Yenan was the capital. The territory along with salary to his army was provided by Chiang Kai-Shek’s nationalist government, under the pressure of Stalin after the failed attempt of coup by young Marshall. For almost 10 years, Mao ruled in this territory before he captured whole China. He used these 10 years; first, through media to portray his image as a good leader. He invited many western correspondents to write about him, and he was in fact very successful in this pursuit. Many US diplomats found that Mao was better than Chiang Kai-Shek. More importantly, during these 10 years, he was waiting for an opportunity to grab China.

Recently, I was listening to BBC correspondent who was invited in Nepali Maoist marriage ceremony. I could already see that correspondent was highlighting many positive aspects about Maoist. Like marriage ceremony was held with very few fan fare and without any dowry. He also described about effective court proceeding of Maoist in the places where current government had failed to provide any justice, etc.

It is very strange to accept that the man who was ruling around two third of the country suddenly agrees to share his power with other lousy incompetent democratic leaders. There is no secret that there was a huge contribution of Maoist in toppling the King. It is said that Maoist instructed villagers that each family has to send a family member to participate in the “Jana Andolan”. Which means, in theory we may say that even “Jana Andolan” was part of their plan, even though the exact execution was perhaps totally different from what they had expected.

Under the current worldwise political scenarios, Prachanda might be a very good convert who thinks that democratic way is the best way. Let it be like that. However, let us play the role of devil’s advocate as western pepople say. What kind of cards Prachanda is keeping close to his chest?

In past, it is no secret that it was difficult for him to capture Kathamdu. RNA and Police have succeeded at least not to let them create havoc in Kathmandu. Now, as stated in the headlines, by being ally to 7 parties, the door of the fortress is open for them without any struggle. He already has free access to not only to Kathamndu but also to parliament. His cadres are roaming freely around in Kathmandu.

What about the disarmament and cantonment etc. Although Prachanda gave count of his soldiers nobody knows for sure how many soldier he really has. Besides, he can put in cantonment relatively recently recruited army without sacrificing his real army. As far as surrendering of weapons is concerned one could easily submit old and useless weapons. The world has witnessed many times such kind of tricks.

Here comes Plan A, If Prachanda wins election democratically, then obviously he would try to impose his ideas. If rules don’t permit, he can resort to terror, which he and his party have leant and mastered from Chairman Mao, who had very effectively applied this formula to tame so many people in China. In case he loses election (Plan B), since his cadres are already in Kathmandu and he would not surrender his efficient weapons, he would, amidst all this chaos, capture Kathamandu within a matter of weeks if not days.

I am not a specialist in the area and hope this would not turn out to be true. However let us not stop playing devil’s advocate-and if you have Plan C, Plan D let us discuss. Appreciate your comments.

0 thoughts on “Prachanda : Plan A and Plan B

  1. Amar – I think Prachanda himself is in confusion. The Maoists were not controlling two-third of the country. They did not capture any district capital for 24 hours. He had night time guerilla and he had created fear by killing poor villagers accusing them of being spy. He had lost the war. He tried to do exactly what his god father Mao had done. The world has changed since then. And we have India as our Neighbor. Indians knew all the time where Prachanda and his cronies where hiding in India. Going against India and establishing communist rule in Nepal was not possible for them. Bottom line is Prachanda compromised – he had no choice.

    He is looking for safe landing. He can’t smooth his slogans too soon. His party is full of extrimists. He will have to do it slowly. Even if he loses the election, he is not going anywhere and he will be losing the election. There is no plan A and plan C. I call it plan c – which is losing election and staying in Nepali politics using the money he has amassed looting/extorting poor people in Nepal.

  2. It seems either the article is sloppy or nonone likes to be devil’s advocate.

    Nevertheless, even everything works out well and Prachanda follows the main stream democracy, I was wondering what percentage of red army would remainn in jungle under the pretext of purist, otherwise to collect easy money.

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