Looking at the current political scenario of the country, I have thought of a theory that might just come into play soon. This has worked in different parts of the world when a group of organized or unorganized looters/killers pushed the general people to the limit and the general public awoke and retaliated. I remember the day when mandales used to loot and kill people during the heyday of the Panchayat era. Mandales were the group protected by the palace and they thought they were above the law. Neither could they be prosecuted, nor could the armies or the police be used against them. Palace protection was the key to the mandales’ existence. The King’s personal secretary and generals and ex-generals close to the king used to promote mandales as a parallel force to the Police and Armies. They led mandales to believe they were above the law. That’s’ exactly what the Maoist cadres think and they are doing the exact same thing the mandales were doing then. As the movement against the Panchayat started, mandales were the first ones targeted by the people. They had to go into hiding as the streets they used to rule became very unsafe for them. Mandales had no one to go to when thousands came to streets against them.
Comparing the Maoists with the Panchayat era mandales, I see the following theory leading to the end of the Maoists’ tyranny and cruelty. If my theory below holds true, the Maoists cadres will suffer the same plight that befell on the mandales.
1. The Maoists will continue to extort, loot and kill
2. The Maoists leaders will continue to act hypocritically and deny involvement, and claim they have the people’s support
3. Different interest group will start protesting as some business groups have already started under the leadership of FNCCI
4. Protest will grow gradually and will turn to mass street protests
5. People will start hitting the Maoists just like the way they did with mandales after the fall of Panchayat era
6. When millions take to the streets, the Maoists will have no one to kill
7. This will force the Maoists to negotiate with the government and the Maoists will remain a tiny party within the multi-party system
I give some credit to the Maoists for pushing the King to the extreme. But, they were just a tiny player and 10 years of multi-party democracy gets most of the credit. Furthermore, it is the people of Nepal who deserve the salute. If the Maoists want to keep some of the credit that people are giving them now, they should immediately stop their barbaric act and surrender to the people’s power. No one is more powerful than the people in the streets.
The theory outlined above may be further supported by the geo-political situation of our country. Everything is against the Maoists these days in Nepal. Their bad days have started. The Maoists’ dream of establishing a communist state will never come true. Nepal cannot withstand a week long blockade by India and to kill any possibility of a communist regime, India can go to the extreme and China is no more in support of a Pol-pot style regime that Prachanda’s cadres are dreaming of and behaving like. Without local public and international support, the Maoists are nothing more than bunch of tyrant looters. If they do not come to the mainstream and quit troubling innocent Nepalese people, their days are numbered and their leaders could be prosecuted in an international court of Justice just like the Serbian leaders who, like the Maoists in Nepal, once thought they were fighting for their motherland.
The government should believe in the above theory and should let the Maoists act tyrannically for some more days/months unchecked. Unfortunately, we may have to see more innocent suffer in the hands of the Maoists. The government is not in the situation to win the Maoists using armies or police. The Maoists need to be exposed more and we need to let them drive people to the limit. When people hit the limit, they are going to wake up and will not tolerate the brutality. They day will come soon. I hope the Maoists leaders continue to extort and day dream.